UP2030

Project Description

UP2030 aims to guide cities through the socio-technical transitions required to meet their climate neutrality ambitions, using urban planning and design as the primary vehicle for transformative change. Rather than pursuing a fragmented, project-by-project decarbonisation approach, UP2030 proposes a vision-driven, strategy-based methodology that places cities themselves at the centre of innovation — enabling them to drive systemic change from the neighbourhood scale upward.

The project develops the 5UP methodological framework, structured around five interconnected levers: UP-dating policies, codes, and regulations that hinder the transition; UP-skilling the city stakeholder ecosystem; UP-grading by prototyping digital and physical solutions in selected pilot neighbourhoods; UP-scaling to achieve city-wide impact; and UP-taking by engaging with the EU Mission on Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities and sharing best practices across Europe. Inclusive citizen participation is a guiding principle throughout, ensuring that community needs shape both the city-specific visions and the co-designed interventions — with a deliberate focus on spatial justice and behavioural change.

The project operates across ten pilot cities — Budapest, Granollers, Lisbon, Milan, Münster, Rotterdam, Thessaloniki, Zagreb, Belfast, and Istanbul — each tackling distinct neighbourhood-scale climate challenges. City stakeholders and local authorities are supported by a rich toolkit of digital decision-support tools including BIM/CIM/GIS digital twins, urban building energy models, ecosystem service assessment frameworks, and participatory planning platforms. UP2030 contributes directly to the EU Mission for Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities, targeting measurable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and improved urban liveability by 2030.

LINKS Foundation Activities

LINKS Foundation participates as a full partner and serves as City Liaison for the Milan pilot, anchoring the project’s application at the Porta Romana Park and Railway Yard — Milan’s net-zero development site for the 2026 Winter Olympic Games. LINKS also collaborated to the Lisbon pilot, providing city representative access to the developed air quality monitoring and forecasting tool to assess the outcomes of city interventions on air pollution. LINKS leads activities at the intersection of Earth Observation, AI-based environmental modelling, Nature-Based Solutions assessment, and air quality analytics.

AI-Based Maximum Temperature Estimation Service

Development of a machine learning service to estimate maximum urban surface and air temperatures at neighbourhood scale, leveraging satellite remote sensing data and meteorological inputs:

• application of AI and deep learning models to Land Surface Temperature (LST) data derived from Copernicus and other EO sources, enabling high-resolution spatial mapping of urban heat intensity across pilot city neighbourhoods
• quantification of Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects and assessment of the thermal mitigation potential of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) — such as parks, green roofs, street trees, and permeable surfaces — to inform urban planning and design decisions

AI-Based Air Quality Index Estimation Service

Development of a machine learning service for Air Quality Index (AQI) estimation and forecasting at urban neighbourhood scale, combining remote sensing, traffic, and meteorological data streams:

• adaptation and deployment of AI models for air quality prediction — building on LINKS’ published research in ML-based air quality estimation from traffic and meteorological data (Applied Sciences, 2020) — to provide spatiotemporally granular AQI estimates for pilot city districts
• use of EO-derived proxies (aerosol optical depth, NO₂ columns from Sentinel-5P, land use data) combined with ground sensor networks to produce reliable, actionable air quality assessments for neighbourhoods where fixed monitoring infrastructure is sparse
• delivery of AQI estimates as a decision-support layer within UP2030’s digital planning toolkit, enabling city stakeholders to assess the public health co-benefits of NBS deployment and transport decarbonisation strategies, and to monitor progress against air quality KPIs across pilot sites

Ecosystem Service Assessment and Earth Observation for Urban Planning

Lead responsibility for Ecosystem Service (ES) assessment using Earth Observation data, quantifying the environmental and social benefits of Nature-Based Solutions integrated into urban regeneration plans:

• development and application of EO-based methodologies to map and quantify ES supply — including urban cooling, carbon sequestration, biodiversity support, and stormwater regulation — provided by green-blue infrastructure in pilot city neighbourhoods
• analysis of ES supply-demand mismatches to identify areas of greatest need, particularly in communities most exposed to climate hazards and environmental inequity, thereby strengthening spatial justice in urban planning and design decisions
• leading the Milan pilot’s multi-dimensional resilience assessment for the Porta Romana Olympic development, delivering quantitative sustainability metrics across more than 20 indicators covering NBS co-benefits, soft mobility connectivity, GHG reduction, and citizen engagement outcomes

Funding & Dates

SDGs — Sustainable Development Goals

🏥 Goal 3 — Good Health and Well-Being

🏙️ Goal 11 — Sustainable Cities and Communities

Key Technologies

🤖 AI/ML for Urban Environmental Estimation

Machine learning models for maximum temperature estimation and Air Quality Index forecasting at neighbourhood scale, trained on multi-source inputs including EO remote sensing, ground sensor networks, traffic data, and meteorological variables — building on LINKS’ peer-reviewed research in ML-based air quality prediction.

🛰️ Earth Observation & Remote Sensing for Urban Analytics

Exploitation of Copernicus satellite data — including Land Surface Temperature (LST), Sentinel-5P NO₂ and aerosol retrievals, and multispectral land cover products — to deliver spatially granular urban environmental assessments at the neighbourhood scale across all pilot cities.

🌿 Nature-Based Solutions & Ecosystem Service Assessment

EO-based frameworks for quantifying the supply and demand of Ecosystem Services provided by urban green-blue infrastructure, enabling evidence-based NBS planning, thermal mitigation analysis, and carbon sequestration accounting aligned with environmental justice principles.

Project Partners